Product Description

"It is rare to come across a book that can truly be called fascinating, but here is one."–New Scientist

Why Flip a Coin?

What′s the best way to choose the right spouse? . . . How can I increase my chances of winning the office football pool? . . . By what process should I choose a candidate in the Senate race? . . . Could I possibly make more money playing poker instead of the stock market?

Using examples gleaned from everyday life, noted physicist H. W. Lewis explains what science has discovered about the rules that govern good–and not–so–good–decision making. Full of provocative insights into human psychology and behavior, Why Flip a Coin? will leave you laughing–even as you′re learning.

"Should you read this book or not? If you don′t read it you will surely miss out on Lewis′s flinty wit and sharp sense of irony. The choice is clear. You needn′t even flip a coin."–The Sciences

"Lighthearted but far from flippant."–Amazon.com (Science Editor′s Recommended Book)

Product Details

• Amazon Sales Rank: #968055 in Books
• Published on: 1997-04-23
• Original language: English
• Number of items: 1
• Binding: Hardcover
• 224 pages

From the Inside Flap
Why Flip a Coin? Drawing on a host of research findings and scores of examples—from how to win a war to how to win the office football pool—H. W. Lewis presents a host of brain–teasing problems and amusing scenarios that reveal the clever ways to avoid the chaos and anxiety of decision dilemmas. Inviting readers to play "The Dating Game," he shows how to make a fateful decision when you don’t yet know what all your options are. Telling the classic stories of "The Prisoners’ Dilemma" and "The Lady or the Tiger?", he shows how to weigh the intentions of hostile competitors and effectively anticipate their next moves. "The prize for making better decisions than your opponent may be your own survival," he says. "It pays to practice before the stakes get that high." Like a brilliant detective uncovering the clues to a tricky mystery, Lewis unravels the systematic procedures you can use to separate the threads of options, consequences, probabilities, and preferences that will lead to the optimal choice. He points out the mistakes we so often make when facing a wide variety of decision–making pressures, and shows how to organize your thinking to achieve a clear state of mind when confronting any particular decision. You’ll be amazed as Lewis examines the hidden patterns that profoundly influence legal decisions, the conduct of war, and the course of history itself. He shows how electoral systems can be manipulated to skew the choices and produce unintended results; how the concept of the random walk applies to the stock market; how scientific strategies can be used in gambling; and how understanding standard deviation and regression can lead to better predictions in both personal and professional life. If you’d like to become a better decision–maker, your decision to read this thoroughly enjoyable book will be among the first in a long series of very good decisions.

From the Back Cover
Why Flip a Coin?

Drawing on a host of research findings and scores of examples—from how to win a war to how to win the office football pool —H. W. Lewis presents a host of brain–teasing problems and amusing scenarios that reveal the clever ways to avoid the chaos and anxiety of decision dilemmas.

Inviting readers to play "The Dating Game," he shows how to take a fateful decision when you don′t yet know what all your options are. Telling the classic stories of "The Prisoners′ Dilemma" and "The Lady or the Tiger?", he shows how to weigh the intentions of hostile competitors and effectively anticipate their next moves. "The prize for making better decisions than your opponent may be your own survival," he says. "It pays to practice before the stakes get that high."

Like a brilliant detective uncovering the clues to a tricky mystery, Lewis unravels the systematic procedures you can use to separate the threads of options, consequences, probabilities, and preferences that will lead to the optimal choice. He points out the mistakes we so often make when facing a wide variety of decision–making pressures, and shows how to organize your thinking to achieve a clear state of mind when confronting any particular decision.

You′ll be amazed as Lewis examines the hidden patterns that profoundly influence legal decisions, the conduct of war, and the course of history itself. He shows how electoral systems can be manipulated to skew the choices and produce unintended results; how the concept of the random walk applies to the stock market; how scientific strategies can be used in gambling; and how understanding standard deviation and regression can lead to better predictions in both personal and professional life.

If you′d like to become a better decision–maker, your decision to read this thoroughly enjoyable book will be among the first in a long series of very good decisions.

How would you decide?

• This is your night at the casino —you′ve doubled your money and you′re still on a roll. Is it time to quit?
• After years of dating, you′ve met someone close to perfect. Should you stop searching, or hold out for someone even better?
• Your well–diversified mutual fund is performing nicely, but suddenly your broker calls about a hot stock offering. Should you invest?

What are the best ways to approach these and other mind–boggling quandaries? Acclaimed author H. W. Lewis tells you how in this intriguing introduction to the surprising discoveries of "decision science."

"Mr. Lewis takes the reader on an engagingly iconoclastic tour . . . a valuable, clearly written appraisal." —The New York Times Book Review.

"First rate book by a physicist who . . . can write.Who can explain mathematics painlessly. Who is, at times, outrageously funny." —Kirkus Reviews.

About the Author
H. W. LEWIS is Professor of Physics, Emeritus at the University of California, Santa Barbara. He received the American Institute of Physics Science Writing Award for his book Technological Risk. He has served on a number of national science advisory committees, including the Defense Science Board and the President′s Nuclear Safety Oversight Committee.

Customer Reviews

Not quite "Innumeracy", but still good
If you haven't read John Allen Paulos' Innumeracy, go read it before you buy this book because it's much better. If you have read Innumeracy, this serves as a pretty similar book, pointing out the role of probability, etc. in everyday life, dispelling fallacies, etc. I especially enjoyed chapters on Lanchester's Law (how math plays a role in war) and the Stock Market. The author gets a little tangential on the politics chapters, but overall, it's still a good easy read.

entertaining survey of probability theory
This slim volume is primarily a witty overview on the application of statistics, probability theory, and logic to a variety of everyday situations- e.g., sports,gambling, politics etc. the discussion of the 'game show' paradox in chapter 21 was especially fascinating, particularly for fans of Marilyn vos Savant. The application of probability theory to baseball is also very good.

The first part of the book deals with 'the art and science of decision making' (the subtitle of the book) If you've ever made a poor decision, this segment will help you understand which part of the decision process you mssed up.

My main quibble is that the book contains no bibliography- there are a lot of fascinating topics in this book, and many readers will want to pursue further study. A bibliography would have assisted that type of reader.