Product Description

What are the odds against winning the Lottery, making money in a casino, or backing the right horse? Every day, people make judgements on these matters and face other decisions that rest on their understanding of probability: buying insurance, following medical advice, carrying an umbrella. Yet many of us have a frightening ignorance of how probability works. Taking Chances presents an entertaining and fascinating exploration of probability, revealing traps and fallacies in the field. It describes and analyses a remarkable variety of situations where chance plays a role, including football pools, the Lottery, TV games, sport, cards, roulette, coins, and dice. The book guides the reader round common pitfalls, demonstrates how to make better informed decisions, and shows where the odds can be unexpectedly in your favour. This new edition has been fully updated, and includes information on "Who Wants to be a Millionaire?" and "The Weakest Link", plus a new chapter on Probability for Lawyers.

Product Details

• Amazon Sales Rank: #80500 in Books
• Published on: 2003-05-08
• Number of items: 1
• Binding: Paperback
• 400 pages

Amazon.co.uk Review
Most of us enjoy pleasant surprises and know that many of life's greatest rewards are obtained by taking chances. This is true whether we are playing the National Lottery or deciding whether or not to buy flowers when we are unsure if it might be our girlfriend's birthday. So if you enjoy taking chances, and winning--and it's a safe bet that you do--this book helps you do so in a more intelligent way.

John Haigh is Reader in Mathematics at Sussex University and his book covers a remarkably large number of topics. He tells you how to take chances playing the football pools and about the role of chance in sports such as tennis, golf, cricket and soccer. What points in tennis are most important? If a footballer gets a yellow card in 10 percent of games and is suspended for one game whenever he has accumulated two yellow cards, how often is he suspended? What is the chance that a team that scores the first goal goes on to win? He also writes about casino games, bridge and Monopoly, explaining why orange is the best colour of Monopoly property to own.

The book is practical rather than theoretical. It is written for anyone with a curious mind, aged perhaps 16 and up. It is not a textbook, but introduces concepts, such as random walk and game theory, that are familiar to professional mathematicians. There are technical appendices and test-yourself-quizzes for readers who want to explore more. A bonus is advice on the National Lotteries. Haig will help you choose UK National Lottery numbers that are more likely to give you a large prize. However, with typical vividness, he cautions that if the Lottery had begun with the ancient druids, and your ancestors had bought 50 tickets every week for the last 5000 years, then by now your family could expect to have won the jackpot just once! --Richard Weber

Synopsis
What are the odds against winning the Lottery, making money in a casino, or backing the right horse? Every day, people make judgements on these matters and face other decisions that rest on their understanding of probability: buying insurance, following medical advice, carrying an umbrella. Yet many of us have a frightening ignorance of how probability works. Taking Chances presents an entertaining and fascinating exploration of probability, revealing traps and fallacies in the field. It describes and analyses a remarkable variety of situations where chance plays a role, including football pools, the Lottery, TV games, sport, cards, roulette, coins, and dice. The book guides the reader round common pitfalls, demonstrates how to make better informed decisions, and shows where the odds can be unexpectedly in your favour. This new edition has been fully updated, and includes information on "Who Wants to be a Millionaire?" and "The Weakest Link", plus a new chapter on Probability for Lawyers.

From the Publisher
Information about this book
Taking Chances Winning with Probability

John Haigh, University of Sussex

What are the odds against winning the Lottery, making money in a casino, or backing the right horse?

Every day, people make decisions that rest on their understanding of probability - buying insurance, following medical advice, carrying an umbrella - yet many of us have only the vaguest understanding of how probability works. Taking Chances presents an entertaining and practical exploration of probability, revealing traps and fallacies in the field. The book looks at a variety of situations where chance plays a role, including football pools, the Lottery, TV games, sport, cards, roulette, coins, and dice. The book guides us round common pitfalls, demonstrates how to make better informed decisions, and shows where the odds can be unexpectedly in our favour.

Curious facts and useful information found in John Haigh's Taking Chances:

*How do the Football Pools, Premium Bonds and National Lottery match up? *What properties should you go for in Monopoly? *When should a football player risk a red card? *Where did Dostoyevsky and Graham Greene slip up in their roulette writings? *How does spread betting work? *Why should you ALWAYS buy flowers for your partner? *How often do the cards need shuffling? *How do you select the best hotel for your holiday?

Customer Reviews

Normal gamblers beware
While this book is interesting from a general probability point of view I would not consider it of any great value to a gambler. It is difficult to understand how the information could be used effectively on an every day level as it often talks about 'fair' principles which as any gambler knows do not exist. Given the number of years it is since I needed to use proper mathematics I had to do research before I could understand parts of it. It would appear gambling has been befriended by a book about probability rather than probability being the gamblers friend. When reading the book it appeared to me the author is quite dismissive of the chances of gambling for profit and you should expect to lose but it does give strategies in casino games to lose more slowly. As a seasoned gambler I already know about not expecting to turn a profit long-term but its not something I expect a book called 'Winning with Probability' to tell me as I was hoping for some pearls of wisdom. While I found probability interesting it has taught me little about gambling I hadn't learnt previously although at a great deal more expense.

If you're a punter into numbers and thinking hard about your punting ...
... then you'll like this book.

Produced by Oxford University press - the guy is into maths and statistics - but writes well and shows how to use probability in everyday games of chance.

Very useful to see how to apply stats and averages and how not too. You will need a good grasp of English and like playing with numbers - but I constantly re-read pieces of it even a couple of years later.

Probably better aimed at players of Roulette and Blackjack but he also applies his numbers to gameshows and regular things like card tricks and birthdays.

Very interesting book - and will definately help you to avoid the pitfalls of incorrectly estimating chances by highlighting faulty logic.

Superb Introduction to Probability
This is an extremely well written book that is tailored to everyone no matter what background they've had in maths and probability. It's all clearly laid out, interesting examples given and makes you look at things such as football draws in a new light! Great stuff.