Product Description

In 1954 Leon Festinger, a brilliant young experimental social psychologist in the process of inventing a new theory of human behavior - the theory of cognitive dissonance - and two of his colleagues, Henry Riecken and Stanley Schachter, infiltrated a cult who believed the end of the world was only months away. How would these people feel when their prophecy remained unfulfilled? Would they admit the error of their prediction, or would they, as Festinger predicted, readjust their reality to make sense of the new circumstances?


Not only is When Prophecy Fails of great historical importance as the first test of a powerful theory, but it is also a surprisingly touching account of what happens to ordinary people under extraordinary circumstances.

With a new foreword by Elliot Aronson, author of The Social Animal and Mistakes were Made (but not by me)

Product Details

• Amazon Sales Rank: #234752 in Books
• Published on: 2008-09-15
• Original language: English
• Number of items: 1
• Binding: Paperback
• 256 pages

Excerpt. © Reprinted by permission. All rights reserved.
excerpt from chapter 5
The next step in preparation was the removal of metal. The Creator and Sananda went over the matter thoroughly and left no doubt in anyone's mind that to leave any metal on one's person or in one's clothes would be a very dangerous error. All the believers complied painstakingly with this order. Arthur Bergen, for example, carefully unwrapped the tinfoil from each stick of chewing gum in his pocket. Coins and keys were removed from pockets and watches from wrists. Many of the group had already checked their clothes and shoes carefully but now they went over them again and consulted each other about possible omissions. It was agreed that those who wore glasses with metal frames could simply discard them immediately before entering the saucer. For some reason, never specified, identification of any kind was also to be removed from one's person - it could be destroyed on the spot or simply left behind, but not taken to the saucer. Since this was a new order and an unanticipated one, it produced a flurry of excitement as the members sought to recall what items of identification they might be carrying. Finally, the "secret books" of Marian's messages were ordered packed into a large shopping bag and given to Mark Post to carry aboard the saucer. These preparations consumed a great deal of time, for each one was carefully reviewed and cross-checked. There was no margin for error.
At about 11:15, Mrs. Keech received a message ordering the group to get their overcoats and stand by. There were a few minutes of milling about and the group reassembled in the living room, where Marian instructed everyone to be seated quietly and to "act as if this were just an ordinary gathering of friends" in an ordinary house. She particularly warned the members not to stand in front of the living room window, lest they attract the notice of the police, newspapermen, or neighbors who might be watching and might attempt to follow the group when it left. She was especially concerned about the police and made a careful check to see whether a patrol car was outside the house. Her suspicions of being watched were reinforced when twice the phone rang but there was no answering voice on the other end of the line. These calls, Marian asserted, were from reporters checking to see whether the group was still at the house.
By 11:30 all was in readiness and there was nothing to do but wait and think of things that had been overlooked. The few details that did come up were disposed of hurriedly, for everything had to be in order by midnight. When Arthur Bergen suddenly remembered that his shoes had metal toecaps, it was too late to cut them out. From the ensuing excitement emerged the suggestion that he should simply loosen the laces and step out of his shoes before entering the saucer. At about 11:35, one of the authors let it be known that he had not removed the zipper from his trousers. This knowledge produced a near panic reaction. He was rushed into the bedroom where Dr. Armstrong, his hands trembling and his eyes darting to the clock every few seconds, slashed out the zipper with a razor blade and wrenched its clasps free with wire-cutters. By the time the operation was complete it was 11:50, too late to do more than sew up the rent with a few rough stitches. Midnight was almost at hand and everyone must be ready on the dot.
The last ten minutes were tense ones for the group in the living room. They had nothing to do but sit and wait, their coats in their laps. In the tense silence two clocks ticked loudly, one about ten minutes faster than the other. When the faster of the two pointed to 12:05, one of the observers remarked aloud on the fact. A chorus of people replied that midnight had not yet come. Bob Eastman affirmed that the slower clock was correct; he had set it himself only that afternoon. It showed only four minutes before midnight.
These four minutes passed in complete silence except for a single utterance. When the (slower) clock on the mantel showed only one minute remaining before the guide to the saucer was due, Marian exclaimed in a strained, high-pitched voice: "And not a plan has gone astray!" The clock chimed twelve, each stroke painfully clear in the expectant hush. The believers sat motionless.

Customer Reviews

Belief and reality collide like a motorway pile-up
This book is why I gave up reading fiction. No novel is as exciting or as revealing of the human condition as a true story like this.

Studying historical examples, a university research group comes up with a theory about the dynamics of apocalyptic cults. When they hear of a local group who believe they are in contact with aliens who will soon bring about the end of the world, they find the ideal opportunity to test the theory. This book is the record of the scientists' infiltration of the group to observe how its members cope with the failure of prophecy.

In a story woven together from the perspectives of the different investigators, we get to see the hilariously desperate attempts of the group members to validate their sci-fi belief system, and the bizarre home life of the lady whose "channelled" messages from space are the focus of the group.

The behaviour of the investigators as they try to cover their real activities draws suspicion, and the medium interprets this as a sign that they are themselves alien visitors. As the disappointing non-end-of-the-world arrives, the investigators find themselves irreversibly involved in the group they are supposed to be objectively studying. This book was gripping enough to make me get up early to spend all day in a bleak departmental library.

Not what I thought
I was really disappointed with this book, mainly because it was nothing like I thought it would be. The book tells the in-depth story of how Festinger's group of researchers gained access to a 'cult' and what they observed during the process. In actuality, Festinger and his researchers seem to take advantage of a small group of flying saucer enthusiasts who take their assertions a little far and get noticed because of a slow news day. By the end of the book, I certainly felt sorry for those involved and could certainly understand how they might perceive the actions of the researchers (and subsequent account) as a white wash. I think Festinger's idea that this was indeed a 'cult' is highly questionable and the actions/quotes of individual members don't seem a million miles away from the rubbish purveyed on satellite TV. You could take the hard-line Dawkins position that such people should be castigated for holding anti-scientific beliefs; I think this would be a little unfair.

The second thing that annoyed me about the book was the absence of theoretical depth. The whole point of the book for me was for Festinger et al to expand on the theory of cognitive dissonance. A brief mention is made in the first chapter but that is it. This makes the book read like one very long description of a non-event (sorry to spoil the plot but the world did not end on the specified date) that could have been summed up far more briefly. Festinger et al seem to suggest that they can make up for the methodological weaknesses (their research team actively participated in the creation of the group; shaping its development and expression) by providing lots of detail (in a kind of reader decide for yourself if we did shape events argument). For me the book was a missed opportunity to put in some social commentary, dissonance theory, up-dates in the light of new research and a follow-up as to where are the characters now? A new edition with a diligent editor would improve this book no end.

Cognitive Dissonance - The Experiment that gave birth to the term.
'Cognitive Dissonance' is now a recognised term for describing a particular state of mind; a state which seeks to deny an inconvenient truth. The 'truth' in question, in Festinger's study in 1950s America, was the failure of Jesus to return to earth on a flying saucer.

A group of flying saucer enthusiasts had convinced themselves, due to the broadcast 'insights' of one of their number, that the world was about to end. Hope for salvation lay in awaiting Christ's imminent return to rescue a faithful few and take them to a distant star.

The daily meetings of this deluded group were infiltrated by some research students. This book records the students' every observation. The refusal to acknowledge the disappointment at Jesus' non arrival, and the world's continued existence after the prophesied date, gave rise to the term 'cognitive dissonance'.

Festinger remarks on parallels with the Millerites of the 1840s, another, much larger, group, whose End of the World prophecies were confounded. Rather than acknowledge they were wrong, they regrouped as the Seventh Day Adventists who meet to this day. A respectable case is made for the survival of Christianity beyond the disappontment of the Crucifixion. So much had been invested in the hopes for Jesus' salvific mission that adjusting to a a new reality proved, and for many still proves, impossible.

A global movement has lasted for two millennia on account of man's refusal to harmonise reality (Christ was crucified and has not been seen since, save in a mythical resurrection and ascension)with cognition (Christ is alive and will return to Earth).

Festinger's experiment can be seen to reflect that delusion, not on a global scale, but within the confines of a suburban house and
garden.