Product Description

Bruce Bueno de Mesquita can predict the future. He is a master of game theory, a rather fancy name for a simple idea: when people compete with each other they always do what they think is in their own best interest. Bueno de Mesquita uses game theory to foretell - and even engineer - political, financial and personal events. In fact, Bueno de Mesquita's forecasts, for everyone from the CIA to major companies, have an astonishing ninety per cent success rate. In this startling and revelatory book, he describes his methods and allows us to play along. Bueno de Mesquita explores the origins of game theory as formulated by John Nash, the Nobel Prize-winner who became the subject of the film "A Beautiful Mind". He has developed Nash's ideas to create a rigorous and pragmatic system of calculation that enables us to think strategically about what our opponents want, how much they want it, and how they might react to our every move. Bueno de Mesquita applies his methods to many of the most pressing issues of our day. He advises how best to contain the nuclear ambitions of Iran and North Korea. He shows how the Israeli-Palestinian conflict might be resolved. He explains how corporate fraud can be anticipated and prevented. He addresses climate change and international terrorism: their likely evolution and our most effective response. But, as Bueno de Mesquita makes clear, game theory isn't just for saving the world. It can also help in your own life - to succeed in a legal dispute, to advance your career or that of a colleague, and even to buy a car at the lowest possible price. Shrewd, provocative and original, "Predictioneer" will change your understanding of the world - both now and in the future. If life's a game, then Bruce Bueno de Mesquita is the one essential member of your team.

Product Details

• Amazon Sales Rank: #11437 in Books
• Published on: 2009-09-03
• Binding: Hardcover
• 272 pages

Review
'In an extraordinary range of applications, from ancient history to tomorrow's headlines, Bueno de Mesquita demonstrates the power of the game-theoretic approach.' --Roger B. Myerson, Nobel Prize-winning economist; Professor, University of Chicago

'No one will fail to appreciate and learn from this well-written and always interesting account of his procedures.' --Kenneth Arrow, Nobel Prize-winning economist; Professor Emeritus, Stanford University

'Organized thought applied to problems can illuminate and help solve them. This easy and enjoyable read is, in many ways, a how-to book for that very purpose.'
--George P. Shultz, former U.S. Secretary of State

`a fascinating new book' --The Times

`Mesquita offers zingily provocative contemporary policy ideas.' --The Guardian

"An interesting account of how one can approach apparently diverse situations."
--BBC Focus Magazine

About the Author
Bruce Bueno de Mesquita is Julius Silver Professor of Politics at New York University and a Senior Fellow at the Hoover Institution at Stanford University. A specialist in policy forecasting, political economy and international security policy, he received his doctorate in political science from the University of Michigan. Bueno de Mesquita is the author of fourteen books and numerous articles for journals, newspapers and magazines. He is a partner in a consulting firm focused on government and business applications of his game theory models. He lives in San Francisco and New York City.

Customer Reviews

Interesting Reading
This is an interesting book to read.

The Author explains how he has used Game Theory to predict the outcome of events; in some cases, to change the outcome of events to favour his clients. The principle of Game Theory in his book is that people always remain human and self-interested no matter what their situation or nationality or religion. He emphasises that the process is entirely mathematical and logical and does not rely upon opinions other than in the assessment of the player's self-interests and their saliency to the outcome.

The results of the modelling are often counter-intuitive and run against the outcomes predicted by experts, yet they prove to be correct. He claims that his success rate is better than 90% (which is better than that achieved by experts).

The book is a good reading. It will not suit everyone but will appeal to anyone who wants to know about how to predict or influence outcomes. Businessmen should like this book.

Sadly the book has some weaknesses.

The first is that there is only a superficial explanation about how to make the predictions.

Second, there is nothing of any substance about the maths of Game Theory or how to apply it. Apart from some excellent advice on how to buy the new car you want (or anything else) at the lowest price, the book is short on practical advice (unless it is to hire the Author).

The third weakness is that he has had to disguise the identity of his clients. Although this is understandable, it makes the stories dull and stodgy to follow.

An excellent book, but don't expect to be better able to predict or influence outcomes after reading it, unless you plan to buy a car (superb advice) or hire the Author. Having said that, if you plan to buy a car, the saving will pay for the book.

roundabout description of the author's model
I've yet to come across a 10/10 book on Game Theory.
They all look to me half-baked, unfinished white papers of unfulfilled promises.
This one is a bit better, but still leaves a bit to be desired. Starts strong, sags in the middle then picks up again at the very end.
The fabled 'model' is not presented in any shape or form, just references to its brilliance - rather annoying...