Product Description

Everyone wants to succeed in life. But what causes some of us to be more successful than others? Is it really down to skill and strategy – or something altogether more unpredictable? This book is the word-of-mouth sensation that will change the way you think about business and the world. It is all about luck: more precisely, how we perceive luck in our personal and professional experiences. Nowhere is this more obvious than in the markets – we hear an entrepreneur has ‘vision’ or a trader is ‘talented’, but all too often their performance is down to chance rather than skill. It is only because we fail to understand probability that we continue to believe events are non-random, finding reasons where none exist. This irreverent bestseller has shattered the illusions of people around the world by teaching them how to recognize randomness. Now it can do the same for you.

Product Details

• Amazon Sales Rank: #742 in Books
• Published on: 2007-05-03
• Original language: English
• Binding: Paperback
• 368 pages

Fortune
'One of the smartest books of all time'

Evening Standard
'An iconoclastic tour de force ... nothing escapes his Exocets'

Financial Times
'Excellent and thought-provoking ... an entertaining book'

Customer Reviews

Definately worth to read for those who believe in determinism.
The book offers a better perception of randomness and its effect on our lives mostly using stock market examples. Easy to read for the non-expert in probability or statistics it offers a stochastic view on the world which we perceive to be much more deterministic than it is (mostly by confusing the effect with the results).
Although an engineer myself and not totally unaware of statistics or probability, I considered the representation of philosophical ideas through the prism of the book to be enjoyable and worth mentioning. I also found the supporting bibliographic references to be impressive for a book of this subject.
I can see why some of the people gave an unfavorable review to the book mostly with regard of his writing style (although it didn't bother me) but claims backed up with so many references can be easily confirmed if one needs to do so and can be judged for the essence of the meaning rather than the presentation which is of course important but subjective.

Nonsense
Avoid this like the plague. I foolishly bought it because I'd seen it mentioned several times in the press as somehow revealing something interesting about the current financial crisis and how the author Taleb had some kind of insight into the world of stock markets and beyond.

However, I now realise that most of the excitable reviews surroundng Fooled by Randomness have actually been Fooled by Hype. After all I realise that's why I bought it...

For those who haven't been initiated into the Cult of Taleb, he claims to have privileged information into the way the world really works in the same way other peddlars of reheated buzzwords like to claim. (See Malcolm Gladwell of Tipping Point for another one, although that's a much more enjoyable read.) So instead of a reasoned and logical argument we get a stream of bitty chapters summarising his musings on randomness, stock markets, and, you know, life its-very-self.

The central thesis seems to be (now brace yourself for this revelation): `you can't predict the future'. Whilst technically correct, I'm not really sure we need 300 pages going on and on about it. I think most of the world realises you can't predict the future of the stock markets - or indeed anything much, if you want to be literal about it.

If you really want to muse about the unpredictablilty of stock markets, then watch Aronofsy's, `Pi', which is in a totally different class - given that's it's a quite a good film.

The other big problem with the book is that he's got the world's largest, most irritating, overblown self regard for his own intelligence. His other main theme is: `if you disagree with me, you're an idiot and I will ignore and laugh at you.' Great. What a charmer.

I think the words I'm searching for here are: `he's pompous man who made a few million on the stock market and - contrary to his own `thesis' - seems to think that fact alone justifies his own inflated opinion of himself.

Avoid.

a tour de force of intellectual stimulation
What's in the title is the best summary of what I found in this book.
Not a treatise on probability or a textbook, but his view of all things randomness - its (mis)understanding, and its consequences: in a mix of philosophy, finance, various stories and blunt judgements.

All in a very personal and quirky, but extremely readable form. Thanks god, no editor put their hands on it!
Quite simply, I couldn't put it down till the last line.

As I wrote in a comment already, I actually believe Taleb's style of writing is totally captivating and pure wit & brilliance at times: perhaps not for everyone, so i'd put it down to a question of taste. Granted, there's more than a little narcissism permeating the book - but is it necessarily a bad thing?
Polemists do have a function, if there's substance in their contents and grace to their style.

Checking reviews here (not many lukewarm!), there's one more thing that seems left out: this book is fun! Personally, one of the best readings ever.