Product Description

Although the world's climate has undergone many cyclical changes, the phrase 'climate change' has taken on a sinister meaning, implying catastrophe for humanity, ecology and the environment. We are told that we are responsible for this threat, and that we should act immediately to prevent it. But the apparent scientific consensus over the causes and effects of climate change is not what it appears. "Chill" is a critical survey of the subject by a committed environmentalist and scientist. Based on extensive research, it reveals a disturbing collusion of interests responsible for creating a distorted understanding of changes in global climate. Scientific institutions, basing their work on critically flawed computer simulations and models, have gained influence and funding. In return they have allowed themselves to be directed by the needs of politicians and lobbyists for simple answers, slogans and targets. The resulting policy - a 60 percent reduction of greenhouse-gas emissions by 2050 - would have a huge, almost unimaginable, impact upon landscape, community and biodiversity. On the basis of his studies of satellite data, cloud cover, ocean and solar cycles, Peter Taylor concludes that the main driver of recent global warming has been an unprecedented combination of natural events. His investigations indicate that the current threat facing humanity is a period of cooling, as the cycle turns, comparable in severity to the Little Ice Age of 1400-1700 AD. The risks of such cooling are potentially greater than global warming and on a more immediate time scale, with the possibility of failing harvests leaving hundreds of millions vulnerable to famine. Drawing on his experience of energy policy and sustainability, Taylor suggests practical steps that should be taken now. He urges a shift away from mistaken policies that attempt to avert inevitable natural changes, to an adaptation to a climate that may turn significantly cooler.

Product Details

• Amazon Sales Rank: #4204 in Books
• Published on: 2009-06-01
• Original language: English
• Number of items: 1
• Binding: Paperback
• 404 pages

Review
'Do you believe the earth is warming? Think again, says Peter Taylor, a committed environmental analyst with the unusual gift of following scientific evidence ruthlessly wherever it may lead. Taylor has done groundbreaking work on issues ranging from ocean pollution and biodiversity through renewable energy. Now he turns his relentless searchlight on climate change. His work has the ring of passion and the clarity of intellectual honesty. We can be certain his conclusions are the product of a fearless, unbiased, and intelligent intellectual journey by a remarkable mind, all the marks of genuine science. Taylor challenges us to look beyond our biases to whatever conclusions the evidence may justify. Believers in global warming such as myself may not find comfort here, but they will without question find a clear challenge to examine all the evidence objectively. At the very least, Taylor raises issues and questions that must be addressed conclusively before global warming can be genuinely regarded as truthA", inconvenient or otherwise. This book is a must-read for everyone on all sides of the climate change issue.' - W. Jackson Davis, professor emeritus, University of California, and author of the first draft of the Kyoto Protocol

About the Author
PETER TAYLOR is a science analyst and policy advisor with over 30 years experience as a consultant to environmental NGOs, government departments and agencies, intergovernmental bodies, the European Commission, the European Parliament and the UN. His range of expertise stretches from pollution and accident risk from nuclear operations, chemical pollution of the oceans and atmosphere, wildlife ecology and conservation, to renewable energy strategies and climate change. In addition to his advisory work, he has lectured widely in universities and institutes in Britain, Germany, Sweden, the USA and Japan, influencing the thinking and careers of several leading scientists. After graduating in Natural Sciences at Oxford University (and later returning to study Social Anthropology) he set up and directed the Oxford-based Political Ecology Research Group and pioneered the development of critical scientific review on environmental issues, both in the examination of official policy and in its use as a campaigning tool for legal reforms such as the precautionary principle (he was a leading advocate of this at UN conventions). He has sat on several government commissions and research advisory bodies. From 2000 to 2003 he was a member of the UK Government's National Advisory Group for Community Renewable Energy. In 2000 Taylor set up a new group, Ethos (www.ethos-uk.com), to develop educational programmes using leading-edge computer techniques for visualizing change in the rural landscape. After an extensive review of conservation practice for the British Association of Nature Conservationists, he published Beyond Conservation: a wildland strategy in the spring of 2005, and helped found and organize the Wildland Network for conservationists, foresters and land managers. He is a leading advocate of rewilding policies in nature conservation involving minimal human intervention and the reintroduction of exterminated large mammals, and sits on an advisory group for the management of National Trust and Forestry Commission land in the Lake District. At some time he has been a member of the following professional institutes (reflecting his work and interests at different times): the Institute of Biology, the British Ecological Society, the Society for Radiological Protection, and the International Union of Radio-ecologists (at times on the editorial board of the Journal of Radioecology). During his work on marine pollution and hazardous industries he both critically assessed and utilized computer models of complex marine and atmospheric pathways. He is ideally qualified to review and synthesize climate science across many disciplines, taking a broad and independent view with an unparalleled insight into the workings of science and the evolution of policy behind the scenes of public debate and thus to make recommendations that respect the essentials of social as well as environmental sustainability.

Customer Reviews

Required reading on climate.
This is a truly fascinating book. It is divided into two parts: the first part is a review of the most up-to-date science on a range of subjects relevant to climate; the second part is a discussion on policy responses to a changing climate - how society can become resilient to a cooling or warming climate and at the same time live within the limits of a world of finite resources. These are big subjects and Taylor tackles them with authority and wisdom.

Taylor's authority comes from a long track history at the sharp end of environmental science. His career has drawn him into a broad spectrum of science associated mainly with pollution. Significantly, he has on several occasions successfully challenged environmental modelling being used to justify polluting activities, leading to international treaties banning the activities. He was also pivotal in the UN acceptance of the precautionary principle with regards to pollution: the burden of proof is on the polluter. Taylor's wisdom comes simply from having no vested interest, beyond seeing scientific truth prevail, and protecting the natural world and the human qualities of a truly civilised society. There can be nobody better placed to provide a thorough review of this complex subject.

What makes this book a particularly interesting read is the combination of a review of the most current science and some thorough investigative journalism. The result is a compelling story about one of the biggest and most contentious issues or our time.

Taylor reports on peer reviewed studies in the following areas of science: the influence of cloud cover on local and global temperatures; ocean cycles and their influence on climate; the contrasting temperature patterns of the Arctic and Antarctic regions; the variability of light energy emitted from the sun and its influence on global temperature; variations in higher frequency electromagnetic radiation emitted from the sun, related to sunspot activity, and its influence on cloud cover in our atmosphere; and the effects of cosmic rays from other sources in the solar system. Most of these areas of study are relatively recent, more recent than the original climate change models, and data is still incomplete. It is clear that there are powerful forces influencing our climate both internal and external to the planet, and very likely to be inter-related. They will sometimes work in synchrony and sometimes in opposition, creating small and large amplitude cycles over different time periods.

The science is not complete enough for these factors to be integrated into the computer models used to represent climate. So when the IPCC state about global warming that it is "very likely that it is not due to known natural causes alone", the statement is accurate but ambiguous. It is easy to interpret this as stating that global warming is due to human activity (i.e. carbon emissions). However, it may be more accurate to read it as "the causes are unkown" (because our knowledge is incomplete).

Why does the IPCC put so much weight on carbon dioxide as the driver of global temperature? The simple answer is of course that this is what the computer models tell us. However Taylor has dug up some very interesting facts from the minutes of the IPCC meetings. It is accepted that carbon dioxide cannot produce a significant greenhouse effect on its own. Water vapour is by far the most significant greenhouse gas. The computer models are based on an assumption that increasing carbon dioxide in the atmosphere increases water vapour, amplifying its effect by a factor of three. This effect has never been measured and does not have a proven theoretical basis. It was put forward by one influential scientist, while another scientist on the panel argued that the effect may be neutral or negative. But somehow this assumption has been accepted and integrated into the climate models.

With computer modeling, the model is only as accurate as the information being put in. The climate models have consistently failed to predict patterns, and need to be adjusted in the light of new information. Taylor has successfully critiqued computer modelling in the past, and sees the same process in action here. The models portray a rise in temperature in response to an increase in atmospheric carbon dioxide. The data shows that this is simply not the case, and even in the last century global temperatures have swung between extremes which bear no relation to greenhouse gases.

The only science that has successfully predicted global temperature variations is the cycles of solar electromagnetic radiation related to sunspots. Sunspot activity has shown observable and regular cycles, and these cycles have coincided with global temperature variations, and climatic cycles, for example El Nino. The current fall in global temperatures since 1998 were predicted by observation of sunspots. It is disquieting that continued cooling is predicted for many years to come, with the possibility of entering a mini ice age by around 2030. This will cause major crop failures across the northern temperate zone, leading to massive food shortages.

This context sets the scene for the second part of the book. Taylor questions the sense of current policies designed specifically to reduce how much carbon dioxide we put into the atmosphere, on two counts.

The science reviewed in the first part of the book suggests that carbon dioxide has at most 20% influence on climate and possibly none at all. The other influences are not subject to human control. The orthodox view has been that the present cooling is indeed due to natural influences, which are masking an underlying continued warming caused by carbon dioxide. According to Taylor, the reality is that these natural influences dominate climate and that greenhouse gases only play a minor part in the equation. Time will tell, of course, but Taylor's concern is that policies to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, with the aim of reducing global warming, cannot be effective and are therefore a waste of money.

Secondly, and worse, some of these policies have proved to be profoundly destructive, for example the target for biofuel contributing to destruction of huge areas of rainforest and creating food shortages. Tokenistic, knee-jerk, ill-considered solutions such as this are not even successful at realising significant reductions on carbon emissions, and are creating other problems. Taylor proposes a suite of policies that take a long-term and radical view, to create a society and an economic model that is resilient to climate change, whether it brings warming or cooling. And which will enable us to live within the limits of global resources and ecosystems. At heart, none of this is new: it is a return to traditional environmental values, in the face of an unhelpful obsession with carbon.

Taylor provides insights from social psychology, anthropology and history to support his arguments and explain the turn of events. He is far from dogmatic, indeed he explores all interpretations and is challenging dogma. He is surprisingly diplomatic, and offers sympathetic explanations for an apparent conspiracy theory or mass delusion. He has also put himself in a lonely spot, unlikely to find many allies. Many environmentalists, while they remain religiously adhered to the idea that climate change caused by greenhouse gas emissions is the greatest cause humanity has ever faced, will be unhappy to see this doctrine challenged and unwilling to approach the subject with an open mind. Meanwhile, those who benefit from the capitalist industrial economy certainly have no ally in Taylor. This is a challenging book: the science is difficult to understand at times; we are forced to review the greenhouse gas doctrine, and this takes many of us out of our comfort zone; and the solutions presented challenge us to accept radical and long-term policies. But it is well worth the effort and we are rewarded with an insight into science and politics from a commentator who has repeatedly been proved right.

The best expose of global warming dogma
There are now quite a number of books that challenge accepted global warming theories. This one is unique as it is written by a genuine environmentalist and long-time campaigner. The author is a hard scientist with solid credentials, having advised everyone from the United Nations to Greenpeace. The evidence he presents against the accepted theory is overwhelming, and his analysis of the present situation is profound. This is the book to read if you want to be truly informed on this critical subject. And, unlike the usual naysayers, Peter Taylor gives many ideas for what we should be doing to protect ourselves from the 'chilling' effects of climate change that ARE likely to happen over the coming years...

A Fierce Analysis
This is by far the best book on climate change I have read. And probably the best science book I have read for years.

Taylor's ability as a dispassionate analyst of the available science on climate change cuts through the subject with precise and compelling language. The analysis and synthesis he has undertaken to deliver this book is astonishing in its breadth and control.
The inescapable conclusions he draws the reader to are shocking and compelling.

The failure in the scientific process that Taylor points to through these pages, will bring the scientific establishment into disgrace similar to that currently experienced by Bankers, and in my view, for similar failures.

Anyone interested in Science and the scientific process must read this book, if only to be in a position to defend Science once the truth of climate change emerges over the coming years.

An excellent and provoking book.