Product Description

The thirty-five chapters in this book describe various judgmental heuristics and the biases they produce, not only in laboratory experiments but in important social, medical, and political situations as well. Individual chapters discuss the representativeness and availability heuristics, problems in judging covariation and control, overconfidence, multistage inference, social perception, medical diagnosis, risk perception, and methods for correcting and improving judgments under uncertainty. About half of the chapters are edited versions of classic articles; the remaining chapters are newly written for this book. Most review multiple studies or entire subareas of research and application rather than describing single experimental studies. This book will be useful to a wide range of students and researchers, as well as to decision makers seeking to gain insight into their judgments and to improve them.

Product Details

• Amazon Sales Rank: #63849 in Books
• Published on: 1982-04-30
• Original language: English
• Number of items: 1
• Binding: Paperback
• 544 pages

Review
"The papers chosen for this volume are an excellent collection, generally well-written and fascinating." Journal of Economic Literature

"The examples are lively, the style is engaging, and it is as entertaining as it is enlightening." Times Literary Supplement

"...an important and well-written book." Journal of the American Statistical Association

"...a good collection of papers on an important topic." Quarterly Journal of Experimental Psychology

"Clearly, this is an important book. Anyone who undertakes judgment and decision research should own it." Contemporary Psychology

Customer Reviews

This is the best book I've ever seen about probability.
I've never seen better explanations of how probabilities should be calculated. And the book is fascinating -- especially what the authors describe about the results of surveys designed to reveal the most common mistakes people make when estimating probabilities.

Where is the spirit ?
I needed this book for my PHD. However I was disappointed because it is heavy, full of excessive statistics and lacking synthesis. The examples are mundane. I could not use them in my daily life nor in my thesis. The subject was promising. I should have wished more stamina, more simplicity, more reusable and applicable ideas.