Product Description

In 2001, Kenneth Deffeyes made a grim prediction: world oil production would reach a peak within the next decade--and there was nothing anyone could do to stop it. Deffeyes's claim echoed the work of geophysicist M. King Hubbert, who in 1956 predicted that U.S. oil production would reach its highest level in the early 1970s. Though roundly criticized by oil experts and economists, Hubbert's prediction came true in 1970.

In this updated edition of Hubbert's Peak, Deffeyes explains the crisis that few now deny we are headed toward. Using geology and economics, he shows how everything from the rising price of groceries to the subprime mortgage crisis has been exacerbated by the shrinking supply--and growing price--of oil. Although there is no easy solution to these problems, Deffeyes argues that the first step is understanding the trouble that we are in.

Product Details

• Amazon Sales Rank: #271240 in Books
• Published on: 2008-11-04
• Original language: English
• Number of items: 1
• Binding: Paperback
• 232 pages

J.R. McNeill, Wilson Quarterly
There are few things as important nowadays as the energy system, and few books on the subject as thought provoking. . . .

Review
Praise for the previous edition: "Deffeyes has reached a conclusion with far-reaching consequences for the entire industrialized world. . . . The 100-year reign of King Oil will be over.
(Fred Guterl Newsweek )

Praise for the previous edition: "Deffeyes makes a persuasive case. . . . This is an oilman and geologist's assessment of the future, grounded in cold mathematics. And it's frightening.
(Paul Raeburn Scientific American )

Praise for the previous edition: "Deffeyes writes with the taut reasoning of a scientist and the passion of someone raised in the industry. His background is ideal for this subject, and the book is a gem. . . . Read Hubbert's Peak--it's better to know what lies ahead than to be surprised too late to respond.
(Brian J. Skinner American Scientist )

Praise for the previous edition: "A persuasive prophecy. Hubbert's story is important and needs to be told. I suspect that historians in years to come will recognise Hubbert's Peak as a historical turning point.
(Tim Burnhill New Scientist )

Praise for the previous edition: "A most readable handbook. . . . If [Deffeyes] is right we have, at most, two or three years in which to prepare for yet another price shock, and to accelerate our move away from oil as fuel. The strength of the book lies in its solid background and well-explained basis for that single prediction.
(Stuart Young Nature )

Praise for the previous edition: "An important new book.
(Robert Kuttner Boston Globe )

Praise for the previous edition: "[Some] experts . . . worry that the global peak in production will come in the next decade. . . . A heavyweight has now joined this gloomy chorus. Kenneth Deffeyes argues in a lively new book that global oil production could peak as soon as 2004.
(The Economist )

Praise for the previous edition: "Deffeyes, using Hubbert's methodology, shows that the trajectory of world reserves is closely following the pattern of U.S. discovery and depletion, with just a few decades' lag. Drilling deeper, in more remote locations, and with more elaborate technologies won't tap reserves that don't exist. . . . America's energy policy needs to tilt away from oil and in favor of conservation, new technology, and domestic renewables. The time to act is now, before the next wave of gas lines and rationing is upon us.
(Robert Kuttner Business Week )

Praise for the previous edition: "There are few things as important nowadays as the energy system, and few books on the subject as thought provoking as this one.
(J.R. McNeill Wilson Quarterly )

Praise for the previous edition: "We have long been told that fossil fuels wouldn't last forever, but Deffeyes hypothesis is still startling: Sometime during the next decade, the supply of oil won't keep up with the demand. Because of its broad impact Hubbert's Peak is a must-read for almost everyone--scientists, policy-makers, environmentalists, people who buy cars.
(Ann Wagner NationalJournal.com )

Praise for the previous edition: "An ideal freshman reading assignment in any geology course concerned with energy, geological resources, public policy, general science applications in our modern world, or similar topics. All teachers, from high school through graduate level, in all natural sciences, political science, government, business, and engineering courses should read this book and encourage their students to consider its ramifications in their fields.
(C. John Mann Journal of Geoscience )

Praise for the previous edition: "[A] small and delightfully readable book.
(Choice )

Praise for the previous edition: "Deffeyes's unsettling message is that, although society has been slow to respond to the Hubbert's Peak forecast of world oil decline, a permanent drop in oil production will nevertheless begin within the next decade. Humanity has a brief period in which to wean itself from crude oil, increase energy conservation, and design alternative energy sources.
(Dan Johnson The Futurist )

Praise for the previous edition: "I commend this book . . . to anyone concerned about the future development of planet Earth.
(John Parker Geoscientist )

Praise for the previous edition: "This book sends a message loud and clear: World petroleum production is going to peak within this decade, maybe as early as 2005, but no later than 2009 and there is hardly any way of escaping from this truth. . . . The book is accessible, easy to read and informative.
(Subhes C. Bhattacharyya Natural Resources Forum )

Praise for the previous edition: "In the politics of oil, the left is passionately, sentimentally, tree-huggingly pro-environment, while the right shrugs as it climbs into its official mascot, the biggest sport utility vehicle available. . . . In the slide down Hubbert's Peak, political differences will matter less. If those who planned the Sept. 11 attacks know as much about economics as they do about aeronautics, their next target may be the Saudi Arabian oil fields, on which America, Asia, and Europe are overly dependent.
(Martin Nolan The Boston Globe )

Praise for the previous edition: "An intelligent, briskly written and refreshingly nontechnical book.
(John R. Alden Baltimore Sun )

Praise for the previous edition: "This book . . . should be read . . . by all politicians, by all students, no matter what their discipline, and indeed by anyone concerned about their grandchildren's welfare. Reading Hubbert's Peak is the intellectual equivalent of bungee jumping, being simultaneously exhilarating and terrifying.
(R. C. Selley Geological Magazine )

About the Author
Kenneth S. Deffeyes is professor emeritus at Princeton University. Prior to teaching, he worked alongside M. King Hubbert at the Shell Oil research laboratory in Houston.

Customer Reviews

The end of oil is written in rock
Oil is not running out, we have plenty of oil. However, we need increasing supplies of oil to fuel the exponential growth of our economies, and therein lies a problem. Why? Because we simply can't get oil out of the ground fast enough if we are to meet world demand, and the faster we use it the sooner there is going to be a supply issue. The moment the oil industry reaches it's maximum productivity, it is all downhill for oil, and probably for us too. Drilling more holes will not help, drilling deeper will not help, finding more is not possible, and this book explains why.

Why only certain conditions can create oil, why only certain rocks can bear oil, and why only certain oil bearing rocks can be productive. The book discusses the chemistry of oil and how mankind has already used ingenious technology to find the most accessable oil and boost production, and why we are unlikely to have any further technological gains as far as oil discovery and production are concerned.

And the purpose of this explanation? To back up the (rather dry) theories of Professor M King Hubbert, who prophesised that world oil production would peak around the year 2000 just as he predicted (correctly) that US oil production would peak around 1970. Since 1970, the US has relied upon the Middle East for it's oil, but what happens when world production peaks, and how can we tell that it has?

This book provides some excellent insight into the reasons why we should be concerned with oil depletion and why it is a matter of imminent concern for ourselves and not of our grandchildren.

Why buy this book? Because it is written by Kenneth Deffeyes a geologist, a professor, and a man who has worked intimately with the oil industry since he started working with his father as an adolescent. With oil in his blood, he knows of what he speaks. The book is written in a friendly style, with as much humour as a subject like this can attract. It is full of technical detail, yet despite it being a little heavy for a mere mortal like me, undertsnding the principles behind all that is oil is surprisingly easy.

It would be nice if he could have found indicated the likey impact of and solutions to the problems he has highlighted, but these are other areas of expertise best covered in other books, (try Richard Heinbergs "The Party's Over").

If you fear all this talk of oil running out is rubbish, read this book first before you read any other because it grants a decent technical background to the debate, and if afterwards you can find a buyer for your V8 Range Rover, I will congratulate you.

Good..not great.
The author is a retired professor of petroleum geology, and it shows! He loves to teach geology and he loves to tell corny jokes..

Apart from the opening chapters that lay out the thesis that global oil production is about to peak in just a few short years, most of the book deals with basic oil geology. It gets quite technical, and I could not help but feel that several of the chapters were "filler" material, not directly related to the book's title. Still, it is a pretty good primer on oil exploration science, history and techniques.

Another chapter deals with the mathematics of Mr. Deffeyes's predictions (simple curve fitting, unfortunately) and another (very short one) with alternative energy sources.

The book is short and readable but it provides no new insight. We know that oil is a non-renewable resource and that production will peak in the future. A more useful analysis would have been to take into account the impact of alternatives (hydrogen, solar, wind, etc.)and environmental constraints on supply/demand projections. That would have provided a more thorough (and probably more accurate) view of our energy future.

All in all, a useful book to have if you are interested in energy matters, but not a great one.

An important contribution: comprehensive and compelling
Are you concerned about the current oil and gasoline prices? Do you want to understand what will happen in the future with energy and our standard of living? Then you must read this book. And you will learn that in 1956 a geologist working for Shell Oil, M. King Hubbert, made a prediction (in a paper titled "Nuclear Energy and the Fossil Fuels"). Hubbert then predicted that all U.S. oil production would peak in the early 1970s. At the beginning, all the experts and gurus discarded this men's prediction. But he was right, because U.S. oil production peaked out in 1970. Afterwards, mainly in the 1990s, geologists, oil engineers and analysts began referring to Hubbert's Peak, and using his methods to estimate the peak year for word oil. That is to say, at what point humanity will have consumed half of all world oil endowment, which took hundred of million of years to accumulate. A point that only takes 100 years to reach since oil production started ..... If the actual predictions are correct ( Hubbert's curve is not longer debatable; pending issue is the correct peak year, now estimated to be between 2007 and 2012) the implications for world economy, oil prices, the premises of occidental civilization, will be devastating. So, even if you are not into oil, gas or energy, I consider this book to be of mandatory reading to better understand the workings of the energy world, and dismiss certain current myths, like the possibility of expanding oil production radically through new methods; drilling deeper or in new places. The author of this book, Professor Kenneth Deffeyes, Professor Emeritus at Princeton University, is highly qualified to take you on a fascinating ride, which will qualify non experts to better understand all the factors involved in oil production and future possibilities. Reader will comprehend the origins of oil; what are reservoirs and oil traps; how does one find oil; what are the products that derive from oil, and how do they impact our current lives; how do you drill for oil and extract it; where and when can you discover an oil field. Better yet, this book will leave you in a position to better assess the future of fossil fuels, and certain realities about much discussed, but seldom understood, alternative energy sources. Congrats to Professor Deffeyes, for preaching a clear and understandable energy Gospel. He has proven his worth, as an ex fellow worker of Magister Hubbert, when he started his personal journey, back in the 1950s, at Shell's research lab in Houston....A review by Luciano Lupini.