Product Description

Resource depletion and population pressures are about to catch up with us, and no one is prepared. Oil is running out and, if the Western world continues with its current policies, the next decades will likely be marked by war, economic collapse, and environmental catastrophe. The political élites, especially in the US, have shown themselves to be unwilling to deal with the situation, and have in mind a punishing game of `Last One Standing'.

There are alternatives. A`Powerdown' strategy, for example, would aim to reduce per-capita resource usage in wealthy countries, develop alternative energy sources, distribute resources more equitably, and reduce the human population humanely but systematically over time. It could save us, but will require tremendous effort and economic sacrifice.

Powerdown speaks frankly to these dilemmas. Avoiding cynicism and despair, it begins with an overview of the likely impacts of oil and natural gas depletion and then outlines four options for industrial societies during the next decades:

* Last One Standing: the path of competition for remaining resources;
* Powerdown: the path of cooperation, conservation, and sharing;
* Waiting for a Magic Elixir: wishful thinking, false hopes, and denial;
* Building Lifeboats: the path of community solidarity and preservation.

Finally, the book explores how three important groups within global society - the power élites, the organized opposition to the élites (the `activist' movements), and ordinary people - are likely to respond to these four options. Timely, accessible and eloquent, Powerdown is clarion call to urgent action.

Product Details

• Amazon Sales Rank: #229281 in Books
• Published on: 2004-10-25
• Binding: Paperback
• 224 pages

Synopsis
Resource depletion and population pressures are about to catch up with us, and no one is prepared. Oil is running out and, if the Western world continues with its current policies, the next decades will likely be marked by war, economic collapse, and environmental catastrophe. The political elites, especially in the US, have shown themselves to be unwilling to deal with the situation, and have in mind a punishing game of 'Last One Standing'. There are alternatives. A'Powerdown' strategy, for example, would aim to reduce per-capita resource usage in wealthy countries, develop alternative energy sources, distribute resources more equitably, and reduce the human population humanely but systematically over time. It could save us, but will require tremendous effort and economic sacrifice. Powerdown speaks frankly to these dilemmas.

Avoiding cynicism and despair, it begins with an overview of the likely impacts of oil and natural gas depletion and then outlines four options for industrial societies during the next decades: * Last One Standing: the path of competition for remaining resources; * Powerdown: the path of cooperation, conservation, and sharing; * Waiting for a Magic Elixir: wishful thinking, false hopes, and denial; * Building Lifeboats: the path of community solidarity and preservation. Finally, the book explores how three important groups within global society - the power elites, the organized opposition to the elites (the 'activist' movements), and ordinary people - are likely to respond to these four options. Timely, accessible and eloquent, Powerdown is clarion call to urgent action.

About the Author
RICHARD HEINBERG has been writing about energy resources issues and the dynamics of cultural change for many years. A member of the core faculty at New College of California, he is an award-winning author of three previous books, including The Party's Over, Oil War and the Fate of Industrial Societies (2003). His Museletter was nominated for the Utne Reader's `Best Alternative Newsletter' award in 1993. He lives in Santa Rosa, CA.

Customer Reviews

Well written, shocking introduction to peak oil
Richard Heinberg's perspective, that all living organisms including humans are simply "energy processing systems" is compelling. For most of our existance, we humans have been living on the incidental energy of the sun, received on an annual basis: animal and human muscle power derived from vegetation; heat from wood; wind for windmills and sailing boats. The 200 year fossil fuel age has been a very unusual interlude when we have had available to us the stored energy from ancient sunlight collected over millions of years, which is what fossil fuels are.

His book examines the consequences of us reaching the high-water mark in the fossil-fuel age and our choices for the future. Do we intelligently manage energy descent or fight a hopeless fight to maintain the status quo. The latter choice means we will still descend in energy terms but it will be truly terrible for all of us.

We have a choice to thrive non-materially whilst living more simply, with a significantly reduced human population, travelling and trading less. Or we destroy so much of what we have achieved and risk losing everything, like the Easter Islanders and the Greenland Norse.

Starts Off Strong, Stumbles After Page 54, Finishes Weakly
I like the idea of this book, I like the title, and I like the first 25% or so. The rest is not good, since this book simply dies after page 54, and so overall it is a bust. Starting with lofty and worthwhile goals, it degenerates into a diatribe against Bush, then goes on to dance around the issues. The author has inserted all this Bush stuff, but then avoids answering his own questions about "powerdown". Somehow, the author got off track while writing the book. The book has gained some fame, and in retrospect I suspect largely for the author's earlier works. I am disappointed to have to give this book just 3 stars, about what it really merits.

The opening sections are strong. He presents clear, logical, and entertaining arguments about our use of oil, the decline in discoveries, increasing demand in the US and China, etc. He presents graphs of new oil discoveries versus time, etc. All clear, but not new. Almost every thinking person knows that hydrocarbon reserves are finite and demand is increasing exponentially. Demand is on a collision course with supply. Our oil-coal-gas economy cannot be sustained, and even if we had infinite supplies, it would pollute the planet, and most know that CO2 leveles are rising every year. We knew this before we picked up the book. In any case, that is okay, it sets a foundation for a possible discussion that might follow. If they author had stayed the course and written the whole book as he did in this part, we would have a beautiful 5 star effort. Someone else picking up the book, and just reading this part, might conclude that it is a great 5 star book; it is not great; it is not even good; keep reading, he loses focus.

He has six sections: one on energy sources, one called "Last One Standing" on conflicts, "Powerdown", "Magic Elixir", "Lifeboats", and "Choices".

After the first section, the author poses questions, makes many references to history, makes some dire warnings about our loss of freedoms, etc., but he never answers his own questions. They are left dangling. Instead, he goes off on tangents quoting some other author or studies, inserting those into his book sometimes in table form or in point form, some information is simply exctracted from decades old books from the early 1970s or similar such as the basic terms of the Kyoto protocol,etc., and often it is just to back up his questions, not to give an answer to the central question: what do we do to "powerdown"? Where are we going? It is all very, very, frustrating to read, and in my humble opinon mostly a waste of time after page 54.

The second section is dedicated to attacking Bush and Iraq. Like many he blames Bush and Cheney, that is okay, and they certainly are worthy of that blame, mismanagement of trade, the budget, an illegal invasion of Iraq. But what has that got to do with finite oil reserves and changing our future economy, i.e.: "powerdown" and "options"? In the final analysis not much, and Iraq is largely a distraction. With or without Iraq, we will face oil shortages, and probably sooner, not later. The war might cause small changes in timing, but in the end we need new technology and conservation.

In any case, there are few hints of what we should do or how we might solve the problems: just questions and circular and frustrating philosophical arguments. When the author talks about "powerdown", where do we power down to, i.e.: what level? Is it 1000 watts, or 500 watts, or just 100 watts per capita? Presently we use 11,000 watts on average 24-7 in the US and 5,000 Watts in Europe. How do we get "there" - the "powerdown" level, whatever that is? What do we eliminate? Agriculture? Heating? Education?Transportation? Cancer therapy? All social and government services? All electronics? Aviation? How do we look after 5 to 10 billion people, without having every continent looking like Africa?

He briefly mentions carbon tax credits, durable consumer goods, and solar villages, but these are no solutions. His other solution of fewer people and less energy consumption per capita is self evident, and we do not need the five chapters of discussion to make that point.

Compare the present book with another book The Solar Economy: Renewable Energy for a Sustainable Global Future by Hermann Scheer, a German politician and a winner of many international honours. Sheer's arguments are also a bit flawed. He is a socialist at heart, wants to cut energy consumption for philosophical reasons and also to make it easier to rely on solar energy, and he likes to quote Karl Marx. Scheer jumps the gun in terms of anticipating technical innovation in solar, but at least he presents some clear and specific arguments, clear goals, clear energy production numbers, clear energy generating processes, with answers to questions.

Sure, the first few chapters are 5 star, but then for some unknown reason, the author lost his way. Unfortunately, the book is a bust and mostly a waste of money. I do not recommend buying.

Better books for green reading: Limits to Growth: The 30-Year Update by Donella H. Meadows, Jorgen Randers, Dennis L. Meadows - and perhaps that book or the original is a basis for the present book, The Solar Economy: Renewable Energy for a Sustainable Global Future by Hermann Scheer, a good book by Howard C. Hayden on Solar Energy (ignore his title!), Collapse: How Societies Choose to Fail or Succeed by Jared Diamond, Fueling the Future: How the Battle Over Energy Is Changing Everything by Andrew Heintzman (Editor), Evan Solomon (Editor), The Solar Electric House: Energy for the Environmentally-Responsive, Energy-Independent Home by Steven J. Strong, Renewable Energy Handbook for Homeowners: The Complete Step-by-Step Guide to Making (and Selling) Your Own Power from the Sun, Wind and Water by William H. Kemp,Twilight in the Desert: The Coming Saudi Oil Shock and the World Economy by Matthew R. Simmons, and finally The Discovery of Global Warming by Spencer R. Weart. The last author is associated with the American Institute of Physics.

An important book, but probably preaching to the choir
The main problem with this sort of book is that you won't buy it unless you're already concerned (and presumably at least somewhat familiar) with the issues. Having spent quite a bit of time on the various "peak oil" websites, I found my view confirmed rather than challenged. There's lots of interesting ideas and informative stuff here (I loved the little story about the disintegrating raft!) but the people who need to read it probably aren't going to. Maybe the best approach is to buy it, read it, and then pass it on.