Product Description

Fundamental change occurs most often in one of two ways: as a "fatal discontinuity," a sudden catastrophic event that is potentially world changing, or as a persistent, gradual trend. Global catastrophes include volcanic eruptions, viral pandemics, wars, and large-scale terrorist attacks; trends are demographic, environmental, economic, and political shifts that unfold over time. In this provocative book, scientist Vaclav Smil takes a wide-ranging, interdisciplinary look at the catastrophes and trends the next fifty years may bring. This is not a book of forecasts or scenarios but one that reminds us to pay attention to, and plan for the consequences of, apparently unpredictable events and the ultimate direction of long-term trends.Smil first looks at rare but cataclysmic events, both natural and human-produced, then at trends of global importance: the transition from fossil fuels to other energy sources; demographic and political shifts in Europe, Japan, Russia, China, the United States, and the Muslim world; the battle for global primacy; and growing economic and social inequality. He also considers environmental change - in some ways an amalgam of sudden discontinuities and gradual change - and assesses the often misunderstood complexities of global warming. "Global Catastrophes and Trends" does not come down on the side of either doom-and-gloom scenarios or techno-euphoria. Instead, relying on long-term historical perspectives and a distaste for the rigid compartmentalization of knowledge, Smil argues that understanding change will help us reverse negative trends and minimize the risk of catastrophe.

Product Details

• Amazon Sales Rank: #390646 in Books
• Published on: 2008-08-31
• Original language: English
• Number of items: 1
• Binding: Hardcover
• 320 pages

Review
"In a world awash with alarmist commentators and vested interests, Vaclav Smil's Global Catastrophes and Trends is a timely antidote.... This is not a book for people who have made their minds up in the absence of evidence. It is essential reading for those interested in informing themselves about risks and trends that could derail our settled expectations and concerned to ensure that the responses they advocate are of sensible proportions." - Simon Upton, Chairman, Round Table on Sustainable Development, Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD)"

About the Author
Vaclav Smil is Distinguished Professor at the University of Manitoba and the author of many books, including Energy in Nature and Society: General Energetics of Complex Systems, Energy at the Crossroads, The Earth's Biosphere: Evolution, Dynamics, and Change, Energies: An Illustrated Guide to the Biosphere and Civilization, all of which are published by The MIT Press. He was awarded the 2007 Olivia Schieffelin Nordberg Award for excellence in writing and editing in the population sciences.

Customer Reviews

Fascinating analysis of trends
Predicting the future is still impossible, but science has gotten much better at forecasting it, at least to the extent that it is informed by statistics and probabilities. Vaclav Smil speaks the truth as he sees it, according to mathematical information and indications. For instance, he refutes the "peak oil" scenario, but asserts that society's transition to an economy that is less reliant on fossil fuel is long overdue, environmentally and politically. Smil predicted the financial meltdown and the flu pandemic, so clearly he's on to something. He delves into a variety of issues in this analysis of trends and calamities, from the economic decline of the U.S. to conflicts in Muslim countries, the aging of many national populations and the depletion of essential ecosystems. getAbstract recommends this fascinating account of the future as seen through the cold eye of a statistician.