Product Description

"Artful scenario spinning is a form of convergent thinking about divergent futures. It ensures that you are not always right about the future but–better–that you are almost never wrong about the future. The technology is powerful, simple, and enjoyable, and so is Schwartz′s book." –Stewart Brand What increasingly affects all of us, whether professional planners or individuals preparing for a better future, is not the tangibles of life–bottom–line numbers, for instance–but the intangibles: our hopes and fears, our beliefs and dreams. Only stories–scenarios–and our ability to visualize different kinds of futures adequately capture these intangibles. In The Art of the Long View, now for the first time in paperback and with the addition of an all–new User′s Guide, Peter Schwartz outlines the "scenaric" approach, giving you the tools for developing a strategic vision within your business. Schwartz describes the new techniques, originally developed within Royal/Dutch Shell, based on many of his firsthand scenario exercises with the world′s leading institutions and companies, including the White House, EPA, BellSouth, PG&E, and the International Stock Exchange.

Product Details

• Amazon Sales Rank: #209281 in Books
• Published on: 1997-09-25
• Original language: English
• Binding: Paperback
• 288 pages

Michael Porter, Professor of Business Administration, Harvard University
A Fascinating book about the art of unlocking fresh perspectives for the future, a crucial challenge in any organization.

Stewart Brand
Artful scenario spinning is a form of convergent thinking about divergent futures. It ensures that you are not always right about the future but - better - that you are almost never wrong about the future. The technology is powerful, simple, and enjoyable, and so is Schwartz's book.

From the Back Cover
"Artful scenario spinning is a form of convergent thinking about divergent futures. It ensures that you are not always right about the future but–better–that you are almost never wrong about the future. The technology is powerful, simple, and enjoyable, and so is Schwartz′s book." –Stewart Brand What increasingly affects all of us, whether professional planners or individuals preparing for a better future, is not the tangibles of life–bottom–line numbers, for instance–but the intangibles: our hopes and fears, our beliefs and dreams. Only stories–scenarios–and our ability to visualize different kinds of futures adequately capture these intangibles. In The Art of the Long View, now for the first time in paperback and with the addition of an all–new User′s Guide, Peter Schwartz outlines the "scenaric" approach, giving you the tools for developing a strategic vision within your business. Schwartz describes the new techniques, originally developed within Royal/Dutch Shell, based on many of his firsthand scenario exercises with the world′s leading institutions and companies, including the White House, EPA, BellSouth, PG&E, and the International Stock Exchange.

Customer Reviews

The Long View: Macro and Micro Perspectives
Founder and chairman of the Global Business Network, Schwartz is one of the world's leading futurists. As also indicated in the more recently published The Long Boom, his writing is as clear and crisp as his thinking. Schwartz's comments and suggestions are anchored in extensive real-world experience. His objective is to explain the process of what he calls "scenario-building" which enables managers to "invent and then consider, in depth, several varied stories of equally plausible futures" so that they can make (in his words) "strategic decisions that will be sound for all plausible futures. No matter what future takes place, you are much more likely to be ready for it -- and influential in it -- if you have thought seriously about scenarios."

Managers of companies (regardless of size or nature) are already aware of constant change within their competitive marketplace. Recent developments, notably use of the Internet to expedite globalization, suggest that change will occur progressively faster and have progressively greater impact, both positive and negative.

Meanwhile, for obvious reasons, managers of companies face daily situations and circumstances which require immediate attention and, more often than not, they must quickly make decisions which have profound implications. As a result managers find it very difficult to see "the larger picture", to maintain a "long-term perspective."

Schwartz suggests how. Like Drucker, he avoids making predictions. Rather, he helps his reader to formulate the degree of probability of certain events yet to occur...and then to prepare accordingly.