Product Description

Stock Cycles describes secular trends in the stock market. These are lengthy (10-20 year) periods of generally rising prices (secular bull markets) and flat or even falling prices (secular bear markets). Together a pair of these trends constitute one stock cycle. Investors have all been told that on average stocks return about 10%. This is true, the total return over one cycle is about 10%, but most of this return occurs in the bull portion of the cycle. The bull portion typically gives an average 16% return, leaving only a 4% average return for the bear portion of the cycle. Stock Cycles was written in early 2000, and at that time, argued that the secular bull market begun in 1982 would likely end in 2000, after which a secular bear market would begin which would last at least until 2010 and probably much longer.

A novel valuation methodology called P/R is introduced to trace the progress of the cycle, and which is used to make total return projections for five, ten and twenty year periods beginning in 2000. An explanation for the cause of the cycle is advanced that makes use of an underlying economic cycle called the Kondratiev cycle. Evidence for the existence of the Kondratiev cycle is presented which when combined with the separate stock cycle presents a convincing case for the operation of a cyclical economic process that affects stock market returns. This process today has an approximate period of 36 years and appears to be still operative.

Product Details

• Amazon Sales Rank: #498731 in Books
• Published on: 2000-11-01
• Original language: English
• Number of items: 1
• Binding: Paperback
• 216 pages

About the Author
Michael Alexander grew up in Milwaukee Wisconsin. He was educated at the University of Wisconsin-Milwaukee (B.S. in chemistry in 1981) and University of Wisconsin-Madison (Ph. D. chemical engineering 1988). Since 1988 he has been a research engineer at Pharmacia Corporation. He is married with two children and lives in Kalamazoo Michigan. In addition ot Stock Cycles he is also the author of The Kondratiev Cycle: A generational interpretation.