Product Description

This work is aimed at the trouble with trying to learn about probability. A story of the misconceptions and difficulties civilization overcame in progressing toward probabilistic thinking. It is also an account of what makes the science of probalitity daunting in our own day. To acquire a (correct) intuition of chance is not easy to begin with, and moving from an intuitive sense to a formal notion of probability presents further problems. The author traces the path this process takes in an individual trying to come to grips with concepts of uncertainty and fairness, and also charts the parrallel path by which societies have developed ideas about chance. Why, from ancient to modern times have people resorted to chance in making decisions? Is a decision made by random choice "fair"? What role has gambling played in our understanding of chance? Why do some individuals and societies refuse to accept randomness at all? If understanding randomness is so important to probabilistic thinking, why do the experts disagree about what it really is? And why are our intuitions about chance almost always wrong? Anyone who has puzzled over a probability conundrum is struck by the paradoxes and counterintuitive results that occur at a relatively simple level. Why this should be, and how it has been the case through the ages, is the lesson of this book.

Product Details

• Amazon Sales Rank: #536734 in Books
• Published on: 1999-09-08
• Original language: English
• Number of items: 1
• Binding: Paperback
• 256 pages

Customer Reviews

An interesting book sadly written in a vacuum
I am I openly admit not gifted with a great mathmetical mind so was pleasantly surprised at how skilful and adept this book is at portraying the history of "probability theory and problems" and how the world's approach and knowledge has developed over the centuries. It is a very accessible read and despite covering very complicated mathematical concepts delivers it in a very easy style and with many simple examples that did not leave me struggling.

The basic premise that we are not very inclined to understand or intuitively accept the inevitable outcomes of probability, partly because of how our knowledge has developed over the ages so our brains are wired to think a certain way on mathematical problems but more critically our continual holding on to basic beliefs in good fortune, bad luck and God is very lucidly portrayed.

My main criticism of the book as a non-mathematician is that like reading about economic theories, understanding the concepts is half the battle and the other is the applying of them. While there is endless coverage of the growing interest in the theory of randomness and "gambling concepts" over the centuries, only rarely do you get some idea or insight of the potential benefit and application of such probability theories in the real world e.g. the drawing of lots for military service candidates in the US; usage by Guinness in improving the production of their beer and the development of how atoms behave under nuclear bomb research experiments.

Sadly this results in a well written book being a good intellectual read but lacking in how to develop a wider understanding of what it can all be used for in everyday life.

Very good summary
This is a well-written and educational read. I really enjoyed the history of probability theory, and the author brings the "characters" to life very well without "dumbing down" any of the material. The explanations about specific probability ideas are clear and informing. Highly recommended, both for people who already know something about this branch of maths, as well as for beginners out there!