Product Description

Based on unprecedented real-time access to the military’s entire chain of command, The Gamble is the definitive account of the insurgency within the US military that led to a radical shift in America’s strategy in Iraq – and the bloody implementation of that strategy on the ground. In his international bestseller Fiasco, Thomas E. Ricks gave us the definitive reckoning with what went so wrong in Iraq. The story The Gamble tells is how, when the war was at its darkest hour, a group of dissident junior commanders and their civilian allies did an end run around their superiors in the military establishment and seized control of the war. The result was “the Surge,” one of the American military’s boldest strategic gambles since the landings at Inchon. General David Petraeus gave military expert Thomas E. Ricks extraordinary privileged access to himself and his team during the past two years, and the result is a chronicle of astonishing vividness and analytical depth. It is the story of military leadership in the crucible of war, under excruciating political pressure at home. It is also the story of the soldiers who executed the strategy out in the field. Ricks concludes that the war likely will last for many years to come – and that it will not be remembered for the reasons we think.

Product Details

• Amazon Sales Rank: #112960 in Books
• Published on: 2009-02-26
• Original language: English
• Binding: Hardcover
• 416 pages

Review
'In The Gamble Ricks has produced a book of critical importance not only to our understanding of recent history in Iraq but also one that makes an indispensable contribution to our grasp of contemporary relations between our government's military and civilian authorities' --Tim Rutten, L.A. Times

'It would make a great film ... Ricks tells this story to shine a light through the veil of inscrutability that masks this singular US general, the pivot on which the book turns but by no means the only actor in the story of the surge.' --Allan Mallinson, The Times

Review
'This is a terrific book, and the story that Ricks tells carries complete conviction'


'Powerful and illuminating'

About the Author
Thomas E. Ricks is the senior Pentagon correspondent at the Washington Post, where he has covered the US military since 2000. Until the end of 1999 he held the same beat at the Wall Street Journal, where he was a reporter for seventeen years. A member of two Pulitzer Prize-winning teams for national reporting, he has covered US military activities in Somalia, Haiti, Korea, Bosnia, Kosovo, Macedonia, Kuwait, Turkey, Afghanistan and Iraq. He is the author of Fiasco.

Customer Reviews

Help Wanted: A secular strongman, with demonstrated ability to maintain law and order, and opposed to Iran.
The Gamble is Thomas Ricks' blow-by-blow account of the conception and execution of the "surge" in Iraq and is a sequel to his well-received "Fiasco" which documented the stages of the war prior to this putative turning point (and whose title speaks for itself). Ricks belongs to the Woodward school of history, providing detail of the protagonists' inner thoughts and conversations throughout based on triangulated interviews. Thus his narrative takes on the pace and tone at times of a novel. He tracks the genesis of the surge from the development of counterinsurgency doctrine at Fort Leavenworth through its reluctant adoption by the US Army and Marines in the field and its cooption by the President's men who were desperately seeking a face saving alternative to withdrawal. The story, necessarily, has a different balance from Bob Woodward's "The War Within", as Ricks points out.

The change in approach to the occupation in Iraq promoted by General David Petraeus and General Raymond Odierno has been termed the "Surge" because of the defiantly, counter tidal move by President Bush to commit more forces at a time when virtually everyone including most of the generals in place was demanding a stepdown. In fact, the change was more characterized by an entire shift in doctrine (which to be sure required more boots on the ground) radically resetting the mission from "kill and capture" insurgents to protect the Iraqi people. This shift in mental paradigm altered how the forces behaved and how they were received by the local population. Although there were many initial casualties it worked as a means of greatly reducing violence and creating a degree of what Petraeus calls "sustainable stability."

The story of how the new strategy came to be adopted constitutes both a disturbing indictment of the politicisation, in-fighting, cognitive biases and sheer bureaucratic inertia of the massive US military machine (at one point we are told that Petraeus left Iraq briefly to address the promotion ceremony for forty - yes forty - new generals in Washington) on the one hand, and a more uplifting demonstration of how effectively the actual forces on the ground can learn and change. As Gen. Odierno's testy, English advisor. Emma Sky, remarks, sometimes "America doesn't deserve its military." As an aside, President Bush comes across more positively in this account than one might expect, more intelligent, informed, engaged and flexible than his image as the "Decider" suggests.

However, we also learn that a further key success factor behind the new stability, was Petraeus' willingness to cut deals with warlords who had American blood on their hands. These included Moqtada al-Sadr on the Shia side and many Sunni militias who were financially induced to turn against al Qaeda. At one point these "Sons of Iraq" were on Uncle Sam's payroll to the tune of $30,000,000 a month - but that was alright since it was such a tiny fraction of the total cost of the war. War critics tend to downplay the fact that it is not really the Americans or Brits who have been killing Iraqis but other Iraqis. The country is seething with warring tribes that are armed to the teeth. The government, the police and the army are often part of this pattern. General Petraeus bought stability for a time, but as an Iraqi cabinet minister observed, it is one thing to play with a crocodile when it is a baby, another when it is fully grown.

Thus to the bottom line. Petraeus posed the question before the mission as to "How all this ends?" Well, it appears that Obama will draw down US presence and that the Iraqi government, despite some new confidence on the part of Prime Minister al Maliki, did not use the umbrella of temporary "sustainable stability" to build a framework for permanent sustainable stability. The crocodiles will start snapping. Moqtada may stop biding his time. The prognosis by one US colonel that the real Iraqi civil war has yet to be fought may prove tragically correct. Ricks thinks that Lebanonisation is a likely outcome, with Iran exerting considerable influence.The opportunity provided by the almost certainly temporary success of the surge was not taken.

As for the general on the cover of the book, Ricks paints a portrait of David Petraeus as exceptionally smart, tough, driven and aloof. He is promoted before the end of the story in the book to Centcom commander with responsibility for both Iraq and Afghanistan. Ricks predicts that he may appear at some point as Obama's National Security Advisor. It would not be totally surprising if his thoughts about the White House were not so limited.

This book could easily have been shorter- there is far more journalistic recreation of events than is needed to convey the argument or the story - and there could have been more on the role of Iran. Nonetheless, I enjoyed it and found it thought provoking. Anyone who wishes to feel qualified to express an opinion on the war should read it.

"Follow up to "Fiasco"'
For those, like me, who enjoyed, "Fiasco", this is the next episode in the continuing saga of the US`s unhappy foray into Iraq. There is something of the air of redemption in this book - "Fiasco" left off with the US and coalition forces facing almost near disaster in Iraq and indeed this book kicks off with the bombing of the Golden Dome Mosque in Samarra in Febriary 2006 and Iraq`s near descent into civil war, but due to the efforts of a group of officers, such as retired General Keane, General Petraeus takes over. He and other likeminded individuals such as Odierno, his deputy, employ classic counterinsurgency tactics such as the forces living among the Iraqis to improve security - "the populace are the prize", cutting deals with the Sunni and Shia insurgents to bring them over to the US side rather than the previous "commute to work" from large bases and "insurgency on two fronts", the decline was at least halted, if not reversed.
Some of this background has already been outlined in Bob Woodward`s book - the involvement of Bush and Cheney in effecting the senior personnel changes, and the politicking surrounding the decision to proceed with the "surge" of US forces. Some of the previous reviewer`s comments re Bush are correct although Hicks is very clear that he believes the personnel and tactical changes should have been made several years earlier and that this was Bush`s responsibility.
Despite the reductions in incidents, fatalities (both military and civilian),as a result of the revised senior military line up and tactics, the book`s conclusions on the "Gamble" make sober reading. Petraeus and his successor, Odierno, very much believe that this is a a 'long war' and that a US military presence will be likely for many more years yet - redemption is therefore "work in progress". The "surge" tactics have only been limited in their success since they were also implemented with a view to allowing the politicians to begin to craft a political solution to the problems faced by Iraq following the fall of Saddam. In the Northern Ireland context, this was described as aiming at an "acceptable level of violence" or "holding the ring" while the politicians negotiated a resolution. This took decades to take effect in a place where the intensity of the conflict, albeit bitter, pales in comparison with that experienced in Iraq over the last six years. In addition, the three parties, Shia, Sunni and Kurds, are still struggling to make the compromises necessary. Meanwhile, the US is in a major economic crisis and its attention is being diverted to the Af/Pak conflict.
Petraeus posed the question about the US involvement in Iraq: "How does this end?" Not any time soon and the answer is unlikely to be so clearcut...

Superb analysis of the Iraq War
The Gamble needs to be viewed as the second part to Ricks book Fiasco which begins the story of the US military adventure in Iraq.
The Gamble picks up where Fiasco ended and concentrates on the change in strategy by the US army who belated saw the light and transformed their strategy and tactics on the ground finally learning from painful and costly mistakes.

The book deals with two worlds, the political and the military. More time is spent on the military and this is not a comprehensive political account of what happened. It is however a fairly comprehensive one of the military strategy, tactics, policy and personnel.

Based on detailed interviews with many of the main protagonists it is an honest and unbiased account of how the US military under the leadership of Odierno and Petraeus with the influential Jack Keane in the background regained the initiative against all the odds with the Surge.

The book gives a very good macro view of the broad tactics and strategic decisions and mistakes and brings these to life with countless on the ground examples and accounts.

If you're interested in finding out exactly what hapenned in Iraq, the good the bad and the ugly then Fiasco followed by The Gamble will give you the full picture.